Loading the latest econometrics and MMM headlines…- twenty10Loading the latest econometrics and MMM headlines…- twenty10
Proven impact · Selected engagements

The numbers we move
for the brands we measure.

Decision econometrics that turns spend into evidence - and evidence into profit. A selection of results delivered across retail, finance, FMCG, travel and the public sector.

Accuracy · models you can defend Alignment · finance & marketing, one language Clarity · decisions, not dashboards
£0m+
Typical profit gains per projects range from £1m to £20m
0%
Average improvement in ROI
0%+
Forecasting accuracy
Flagship results

When measurement changes the decision

Media optimisation · FMCG

£1.2m profit and a 40% ROI lift for a snacking brand - by getting timing, creative and channels right

Snacking brand · kids & family
01Challenge

Which timing, creative and media channels would best drive a Back-to-School push - and how could the brand communicate to a younger audience under tight ASA restrictions?

02Solution

We measured key seasonal movements against TV cost and promotional schedules to optimise BTS timing for full-margin uplift. The models showed digital and YouTube were most efficient, while TV and Cinema still earned their place on scale and reach.

03Benefit

A £378k saving by moving BTS media earlier and de-coupling it from promos so uplift hit full margin. Total impact of the optimised plan: +40% ROI and £1.2m additional profit.

Additional profit · optimised plan
£0m
Same brand, smarter timing, creative and channel mix.
Headline gains
ROI uplift
0%
Media saving
£0k
Pricing · Food manufacturing

£600k+ in additional annual margin for a pie manufacturer - by pricing with evidence

Pie manufacturer · multi-retailer
01Challenge

How to change prices across SKUs without upsetting customers - and how would consumers react in terms of revenue, volume and margin?

02Solution

We modelled the impact of various price points over recent years - SKU by SKU, retailer by retailer - and translated the effects through to sales and profit, so leadership could see the full P&L consequence before committing.

03Benefit

The client moved with confidence on the right lines and saw contribution margin increase by over £600k annually.

Additional annual margin
£0k+
From precision pricing on inelastic SKUs - clean gain to the P&L.
Portfolio optimisation · FMCG

£8.2m of incremental returns by optimising media and promotions across a country portfolio

Kerry Foods · cross-brand, cross-trade
01Challenge

How could the country portfolio earn the best short and long-term returns from investment across promotions and media? Leadership needed a framework to steer investment decisions, grounded in MMM.

02Solution

Using a bottom-up approach, we traded measured response curves against each other to find optimal allocations - then wrapped it in optimisation & scenario-planning software for cross-brand and cross-trade media-vs-promotion decisions.

03Benefit

After implementation the plans delivered £8.2m of incremental returns, with long-term profit nearly doubling versus the original £34.3m budget.

Incremental returns delivered
£0m
Same £34.3m budget, reshaped between media and promotions across brands.
Long-term profit · current vs optimised
Current
£0m
Optimised
£0m
"

They excel at stakeholder engagement at all levels from CEO downwards, with clear and concise communication and actionable recommendations.

Adrian Smith · former Head of Revenue Management, Kerry Foods
Real-time econometrics · Telecoms

£17m EBIT, found in a slowing market - and refreshed every month

Telecoms retail · test & learn
01Challenge

A maturing market, rising competition and aggressive price aggregators. The client needed to stay ahead - which meant refreshing media plans faster than a once-a-year model could ever allow, with technology that could re-model and re-visualise on a monthly cadence.

02Solution

Our real-time modelling system delivered standardised econometric results across 30 models in 8 days, every month. The client and their agency could see channel-level ROI, run scenarios and reshape the plan continuously rather than reacting to a stale annual readout.

03Benefit

Optimised plans were actioned with a £17m profitable uplift in a single market - achieved with no additional spend, simply by reallocating budget to where the evidence pointed.

EBIT gain from £1m to £20m per project
£0m+
Delivered in one year, in a single market, with zero incremental investment.
Modelling cadence
Models
0
Days to refresh
0
Nested econometrics · Travel

39% growth on the same €10m budget

Online travel marketplace
01Challenge

The client wanted accelerated growth without growing the war chest. The question was deceptively hard: with a fixed ~€10m media budget, how do you truly leverage it to fuel growth?

02Solution

We modelled the nested impact of brand and above-the-line media onto PPC - separating the work brand was quietly doing to drive search from the clicks PPC was simply harvesting. That revealed what was genuinely driving incremental sales versus what was being over-credited.

03Benefit

Reallocating to the true drivers delivered 39% growth over six months on the same spend - and growth that kept compounding afterwards.

Growth · 6 months · same spend
0%
Achieved by reweighting a fixed ≈€10m budget toward the channels truly driving sales.
"

In-depth digital knowledge and a real balance between TV and digital through their nested approach - different to other vendors.

Marketing Manager · online travel marketplace
Portfolio econometrics · Charity

£13.7m of long-term income - without spending a pound more

Leading UK cancer charity
01Challenge

The charity needed to understand how marketing supported brand and drove donations across a complex portfolio - and whether integrated campaign planning was actually paying off. How do you grow performance on a flat budget?

02Solution

We built a suite of eight econometric models spanning brand health, one-off and ongoing donations, and legacy giving - then mapped how each part of the funnel fed the next, so the full value of marketing investment came into view.

03Benefit

By re-weighting spend into the best-performing messaging and channels, we identified potential long-term income gains of £13.7m for the same media budget.

Long-term income identified
£0m
For the same media budget - unlocked by reweighting toward the strongest channels.
Models in the suite
Econometric
0
Efficiency & reallocation

Same money, more outcome

Funnel econometrics · Banking

20% more efficient - and offline media working 3× harder than online

UK retail bank
01Challenge

The bank needed to measure marketing's impact all the way down the pathway - from brand health to site visits and calls, to new-to-bank accounts, to revenue - to know which channels truly earned their place.

02Solution

We measured every offline, online and event channel against the funnel. The econometrics revealed a counter-intuitive truth: offline media was performing roughly 3× more efficiently than online for this audience.

03Benefit

UK teams built and deployed an offline-weighted campaign with confidence. After implementation, the plans delivered a 20% gain in marketing ROI.

Marketing efficiency gain
0%
Relative efficiency
Offline
0×
Online
0×
Optimisation · Public sector

33% more spend efficiency for the NHS blood & organ donor drive

National health service · public sector
01Challenge

The organisation needed to recruit 200,000 new donors every year and lift donation rates among hard-to-reach audiences - BAME communities, 17-24 year-olds and men. It needed a framework to steer investment, grounded in decision econometrics.

02Solution

By measuring the key drivers of registrations - and how they shift by demographic - we built a clear picture of how to optimally drive sign-ups, channel by channel and audience by audience.

03Benefit

The analysis identified channel-mix and laydown changes worth a 33% increase in media spend efficiency, alongside scenario-planning tools to keep optimising donor recruitment.

Spend efficiency increase
0%
More donors recruited per pound, with optimised channel mix and timing.
Annual recruitment target
New donors
0k
Response curves · Fashion

17% more returns from the same budget - by finding the headroom

Online fashion brand
01Challenge

The brand wanted to know how much room it had to push marketing investment - but without a large research budget. It needed a cost-effective way to map the relationship between spend and sales.

02Solution

We built a response curve for every channel from spend and measured returns - showing exactly where each pound stopped working hard and where it still had room to grow.

03Benefit

The curves revealed direct mail was over-invested while paid social had real headroom. Reallocating would lift returns by 17% versus the current channel mix - no extra budget required.

Returns uplift · same budget
0%
Where the money should move
Paid social ↑
↑
Direct mail ↓
↓
Pricing & portfolio

Beyond media - the whole P&L

Pricing · Food manufacturing

£679k of additional margin - found in the price architecture

Pie manufacturer · multi-retailer
01Challenge

The client wanted to change prices across its SKUs without upsetting customers - and needed models that could evaluate the impact on revenue, volume and margin before committing.

02Solution

We modelled the impact of various price points across recent years, SKU by SKU and retailer by retailer, to find where demand was inelastic enough that a price rise would be profitable across the remaining customers.

03Benefit

The client raised prices on the right lines and saw a clear margin uplift - over £679k of additional margin, a clean net gain to the P&L.

Additional margin identified
£0k
From precision pricing on inelastic SKUs - no volume sacrificed where it mattered.
Cross-market econometrics · Electronics

€125m revenue gain across Europe - for the same €25m budget

Consumer electricals manufacturer
01Challenge

The manufacturer wanted to maximise revenue across Europe and needed a single framework to guide media investment across very different markets.

02Solution

We built response curves by market from annual data, so budget could flow to the countries and channels with the steepest remaining returns rather than being split by habit or history.

03Benefit

Optimising the existing €25m budget across markets delivered a €125m revenue gain - a five-fold return on reallocation alone.

Revenue gain · same budget
€0m
From optimising a €25m budget across European markets.
Budget vs revenue unlocked
Budget
€0m
Revenue
€0m
Optimisation · Digital-led

£2.7m profit gain at constant spend - and a 4.31 profit ROI

Multi-channel advertiser
01Challenge

An £8.4m media budget spread across ten-plus channels, with no clear view of which were carrying the profit and which were quietly eroding it.

02Solution

We modelled profit ROI for every channel and rebuilt the plan around it - cutting over-funded non-brand PPC and pushing budget into paid social, display, affiliates and print where returns were strongest.

03Benefit

Holding total spend flat at £8.4m, the optimised plan delivered £2.7m in additional profit at a 4.31 profit ROI.

Profit gain · 0% extra spend
£0m
Strongest reallocated channels (profit ROI)
Paid social
0
Affiliates
0
Display
0
In their words

Results clients put their name to

£0m

Transformed our marketing measurement with monthly cross-channel ROIs - unbiased insight, with clarity, that significantly increased our returns.

Marketing Comms Director · telecoms · ROI +28%
£0m

Their deliverables enable media planning that drives revenue - in-depth projects, delivered on time, with an accommodating approach.

Insight Manager · grocery retail · ROI 16%
£0m

They take time to understand our business and ask the right questions. Meticulous attention to detail makes them a valuable partner.

Senior Planning & Performance Manager · insurance · ROI +30%
Browse the full library

Case studies, by category

Every engagement, sorted by the kind of question it answered. Filter to the work most relevant to you.

Econometrics & Optimisation

14 engagements
Telecoms

£17m EBIT in a slowing market - refreshed monthly

Telecoms retail · real-time test & learn

Standardised econometric results across 30 models in 8 days every month let the client and agency reshape plans continuously. Optimised allocation delivered a £17m profitable uplift with no extra spend.

£0mEBIT gain · same budget
Travel

39% growth on the same €10m budget

Online travel marketplace

Modelling the nested impact of brand and ATL media onto PPC separated true incremental demand from harvested clicks. Reweighting to the real drivers grew sales 39% over six months - and kept compounding.

0%Growth · 6 months
Banking

20% more efficient - offline working 3× harder

UK retail bank · funnel econometrics

Measuring every channel down the pathway from brand health to revenue revealed offline media performing ~3× online for this audience. An offline-weighted plan lifted marketing ROI by 20%.

0%Efficiency gain
Public sector

33% more spend efficiency for a national donor drive

National health service · public sector

With 200k new donors needed each year across hard-to-reach audiences, measuring the drivers of registration by demographic identified channel-mix and laydown changes worth a 33% efficiency increase.

0%Spend efficiency
Electronics

€125m revenue gain across Europe

Electricals manufacturer · cross-market

Response curves by market let a single framework steer budget to the countries and channels with the steepest remaining returns. Optimising the €25m budget delivered a €125m revenue gain.

€0mRevenue · same budget
Digital-led

£2.7m profit at constant spend · 4.31 ROI

Multi-channel advertiser

Modelling profit ROI per channel on an £8.4m budget exposed over-funded non-brand PPC. Shifting into paid social, display and affiliates delivered £2.7m more profit at a 4.31 profit ROI.

£0mProfit · 0% extra spend
Hotels

£3.4m extra profit from an £8m budget

Hotel group · two-stage modelling

A two-stage model linked web and phone enquiries to room bookings, measuring offline and online media onto both online and offline sales. Optimising the £8m budget realised £3.4m extra profit - and showed spend could safely rise.

£0mExtra profit · same spend
Fashion

17% more returns by finding the headroom

Online fashion brand · response curves

A cost-effective response curve per channel showed direct mail over-invested and paid social with real headroom. Reallocating would lift returns 17% on the current budget.

0%Returns uplift
Recruitment

+£4m profit - and £1m saved on PPC in a month

Recruitment marketplace

Historical models settled the real-ROI question for online channels versus last-click. The answer delivered +£4m profit from a £6m budget and £1m saved on PPC within a month of delivery.

+£0mProfit · £6m budget
Specialist insurance

£2.9m lifetime-value gain from Bayesian regional modelling

Specialist insurer · national ↔ regional

With many levers tested at once, traditional models couldn't cope. A Bayesian approach used historic knowledge to switch seamlessly between national and regional models - finding £2.9m of lifetime value and a best-practice deployment guide.

£0mLifetime-value gain
CPG

Marketing profit grown 40%+ on a limited budget

CPG brand · SKU-level models

SKU models stripped out the effect of historical campaigns to find the true response. Optimisation and scenario-planning identified the optimal channel mix and laydown - growing profit from marketing by over 40%.

0%+Profit from marketing
FMCG / snacking

40% ROI uplift & £1.2m profit on seasonal timing

FMCG · back-to-school seasonality

Aligning measured seasonal movements with media cost and the promo schedule optimised back-to-school timing. Digital led on efficiency while TV and cinema delivered reach - total impact: 40% more ROI and £1.2m profit.

0%ROI uplift · +£1.2m
Travel / rail

+£10.6m in earnings by optimising the media mix

Passenger rail operator

Modelling all drivers of revenue - including disruption and competing transport modes - answered what made marketing more effective. Optimising the mix identified a +£10.6m uplift in earnings.

+£0mEarnings uplift
Public sector / youth

20% more sign-ups on a flat budget

National youth programme

A set of statistical models measured the complex relationships between drivers of expressions of interest, sign-ups and turn-ups across the purchase pathway. Optimising spend lifted sign-ups 20% with no extra budget.

0%Sign-up increase

Pricing & Margin

3 engagements
Food manufacturing

£679k of additional margin from price architecture

Pie manufacturer · multi-retailer

Modelling price points by SKU and retailer found where demand was inelastic enough for a profitable rise. The client raised prices on the right lines for over £679k of additional margin.

£0kAdditional margin
FMCG

£4m upside by holding prices, not raising them

FMCG · multi-market · 3-week delivery

Facing a 40% raw-material cost rise, a technology-enabled approach built SKU and key-account models in three weeks. Holding prices captured £4m of profit upside from competitor switching.

£0mProfit upside
Grocery

10% portfolio-share gain on an optimised launch

Grocery · conjoint + simulator

Conjoint unpicked the drivers, segmentation pinpointed the target, and a market simulator optimised price and branding for a new organic product - driving a 10% increase in portfolio share.

0%Portfolio share

Brand & Long-term

5 engagements
Charity

£13.7m long-term income on the same budget

Leading UK cancer charity

A suite of eight models across brand health, donations and legacy giving mapped how the funnel fed itself. Reweighting to the strongest channels identified £13.7m of long-term income.

£0mLong-term income
CPG

Long-term ROI 2-5× higher than the short term

CPG brand · long-term effects

Structured models explicitly tested for longer-term media effects through direct measurement and brand-metric pathways - showing repeat-purchase and brand experience make true ROI 2-5× the short-term figure.

0×Higher LT ROI
Retail

£13m+ EBIT balancing brand and seasonal spend

Retail · long & short term

Modelling ROI by campaign type showed brand matched response in the short term while seasonal campaigns won on immediate gains. The right balance maintained budgets and identified £13m+ EBIT.

£0m+EBIT gain
Multi-brand retail

£35m profit from standardised cross-brand measurement

National retail group · master-brand

Standardised models across brands measured advertising spanning multiple brands and quantified synergy. An online optimiser put scenarios in planners' hands - actioned for a £35m profit uplift.

£0mNet profit uplift
Multi-market portfolio

£8.2m incremental returns across promotions & media

Country portfolio · media vs promotion

A bottom-up approach traded measured response curves against each other to balance short- and long-term returns across the portfolio. Cross-brand, media-versus-promotion optimisation delivered £8.2m of incremental returns.

£0mIncremental returns

Forecasting & Budget Setting

5 engagements
Global finance

15% marketing-revenue gain across regions

Global financial services · MENA, EU, NA

A test-validate-rollout framework with hold-out validation proved forecast accuracy and won global buy-in from sceptical stakeholders. Markets with decision econometrics delivered a 15% marketing-revenue gain.

0%Revenue gain
Automotive

18% ROI improvement across four markets

Automotive · FR, DE, RU, ES

Registration, web and dealer-traffic models across product lines and markets isolated uplifts from media and finance - improving ROI 18% by optimising channel, product and timing.

0%ROI improvement
Luxury automotive

Defendable 5-year forecast across 5 markets

Luxury car brand · budget setting

Built the shape of a luxury car launch and combined it with the future launch cycle to predict base, then layered meta-models of media effectiveness - a structured, defendable approach to budget setting over five years.

0-yrForecast horizon
Utilities

Scenario-ready forecasting of home-mover demand

Utilities · demand forecasting

A suite of forecasting models identified the key drivers of home-mover volume and quantified the links between them, giving the client a tool to input scenarios and deploy investment more accurately.

Scenario toolBetter deployment
Automotive

4% profit improvement across 12 markets

Automotive · European budget allocation

Response curves across 12 markets - weighing industry size, growth, market position, competitor activity, media value and margin - built investment criteria in a desktop tool, revealing over- and under-investment and a 4% profit gain versus plan.

0%Profit vs planned spend
Retail

Predicting launch revenue from product attributes

Retail · launch modelling

A model of launch sales against launch characteristics quantified the revenue impact of each attribute - letting the client predict success, prioritise the best opportunities and maximise launch performance.

Launch modelBest-bet prioritisation

Conjoint & Consumer

3 engagements
Brand metrics

From 40+ metrics to the 4 that matter

Retail · latent-structure analysis

Tracking 40+ brand metrics made strategy impossible. Grouping attributes and correlating with revenue revealed four composite metrics that mattered - and which channels drove them best.

0Metrics that matter
Grocery

Which attributes move together - and drive sales

Grocery · segmentation + modelling

Segmentation grouped customers by characteristics and modelling identified which attributes correlate with sales, letting the client make informed decisions on how to drive sales for each group.

Driver mapInformed targeting
HR / people

Predicting employee performance from traits

Cross-sectional model · hiring

A cross-sectional model linked performance to personal traits and behaviours, letting hiring managers act with more confidence - reducing turnover and lifting employee performance.

Predictive hireLower turnover

Process & Operations

3 engagements
Insurance

Predicting how long claims take to resolve

Insurer · survival analysis

Survival analysis across regionality, provider and claim type revealed how long different claims take to process - enabling better resource allocation and the right people on the right cases.

Survival modelBetter resourcing
Insurance

Finding the blockers in the customer process

Insurer · process mining

Process mining mapped simple and complex paths to pinpoint which parts of the chain were blocks versus fluid - and which customer groups had more efficient journeys - so the worst could be streamlined.

Process miningStreamlined chain
Insurance

Right benchmark for each insurer and claim type

Insurer · segmentation

A segmentation built around the core client-customer interactions, using timestamped data, showed performance varies sharply by insurer - so the right benchmark surfaces problem cases faster.

BenchmarkingFaster problem ID

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Figures shown are from completed client engagements. Results vary by market, category and data quality.